Where is the US business cycle?

Leading indicators

Tend to turn before the economy does. The ★ rows mirror the ten components of the Conference Board LEI®, each replaced by a free, republishable primary-source series (marked “proxy” when it isn’t the official item). Only those ten count toward the phase read; the rest are context.

Coincident indicators

Move with the economy: the four monthly series the NBER dating committee leans on (★, counted), plus real GDP as quarterly context.

Lagging indicators

Turn after the economy does and confirm a phase in hindsight. Context only, not counted.

Other trackers

Recession rules, models and rate context. The Sahm rule can override the read (≥ 0.50 → Contraction).

Sources & attributions

• All displayed values are fetched directly from primary U.S. government, Federal Reserve and IEX sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Public Data API), U.S. Department of Labor Employment and Training Administration, U.S. Census Bureau (M3, New Residential Construction, MTIS), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (NIPA), Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (H.15, G.17, H.8), Federal Reserve Bank of New York (Markets API, Empire State & Business Leaders surveys, Survey of Consumer Expectations, Treasury term-spread model), NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee and IEX HIST. No data provider endorses TiltRadar or this analysis.
• Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Current Employment Statistics, CES3000000007)
• Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration (Weekly UI Claims)
• Source: U.S. Census Bureau (Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders, M3 survey)
• Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York (Empire State Manufacturing Survey). © 2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Content from the New York Fed subject to the Terms of Use at newyorkfed.org.
• Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (New Residential Construction)
• Data provided for free by IEX. View IEX's Terms of Use.
• Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (H.15 Selected Interest Rates) and U.S. Department of the Treasury
• Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (H.15) and Federal Reserve Bank of New York (EFFR)
• Source: Survey of Consumer Expectations, © 2013-2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY). The SCE data are available without charge at http://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce and may be used subject to license terms posted there. FRBNY disclaims any responsibility or legal liability for this analysis and interpretation of Survey of Consumer Expectations data.
• Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York (Business Leaders Survey). © 2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Content from the New York Fed subject to the Terms of Use at newyorkfed.org.
• Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Current Employment Statistics, CES0000000001)
• Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (G.17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization)
• Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (NIPA Table 2.6, series W875RX)
• Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (NIPA Underlying Detail Table 2BU, series KPMT)
• Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (NIPA Table 1.1.6, series A191RX)
• Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Current Population Survey, LNS14000000)
• Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Current Population Survey, LNS13008275)
• Source: U.S. Census Bureau (Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales)
• Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Major Sector Productivity and Costs, PRS85006113)
• Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (H.15 Selected Interest Rates)
• Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (H.8 Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks)
• Calculated by TiltRadar directly from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPS unemployment rate (rule from Claudia Sahm, 2019)
• © 2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Content from the New York Fed subject to the Terms of Use at newyorkfed.org.
• Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York (Effective Federal Funds Rate). © 2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Content from the New York Fed subject to the Terms of Use at newyorkfed.org.
• Calculated by TiltRadar from Federal Reserve Board H.15 (2-year Treasury) and Federal Reserve Bank of New York (EFFR)
• Source: NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee. Last peak Feb 2020, last trough Apr 2020.
• Trademarks (Leading Economic Index®, Consumer Confidence Index®, ISM®, PMI®, S&P 500®) belong to their owners and are named only to describe what each proxy stands in for.